17. September 2024
Contents: Expectations for FOCAC 2024 +++ NATO on a risky course +++ Blogroll Update: 9Dashline +++ People’s Map of Global China Updates
After four years, my blog ‘China, Geopolitics and the Global South’ is taking a creative break with two posts: a preliminary report on the meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which took place in Beijing in early September and was seen by some observers as a key turning point for relations. And an analysis for the information service 9DashLine on the occasion of the massive participation of several NATO countries in military maneuvers in the Asia-Pacific. This demonstration signals a new phase in the global expansion of the North Atlantic alliance and its involvement in the geopolitical confrontation between the US and China.
Therefore, this is the last edition of the newsletter ‘China, Geopolitics and the Global South’ for the time being. The blog with its around 50 articles and over 30 newsletters, which have aged over the years but many of which can still contribute to an understanding of developments, will of course remain online, but will no longer be updated.The blog will remain online, but will no longer be updated.
Uwe Hoering, September 2024
Expectations for FOCAC 2024
Uwe Hoering, August 2024
The motto of this year’s ninth summit of the Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing at the beginning of September was as pretentious as usual: “Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future.” The focus of the China-watchers, who place the meeting in the context of the “increasing rivalry between China and the West, including in Africa”, is also as mantra-like as usual. FOCAC itself is little more than a show event in ‘community building’. The forum is largely symbolic, essentially a kind of marketplace where financial pledges are negotiated for political favors. The only measurable indicators of success for the relationship between ‘China’ and ‘Africa’ are the number of participants and the financial pledges and whether they are higher or lower than last time in 2021. More (in German)
Update FOCAC: 15. September 2024
51 African heads of state were present at FOCAC 2024 in Bejing, many more than are scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly this month. Beijing pledged $50.7 billion in credit lines and funding over the next three years, a modest increase compared to the meeting three years ago, with an emphasis on trade and investment partnerships. In their analysis for China Global South Project, Chris Alden and Lukas Fiala see a successful turnaround in relations: „While not evident at first sight, this ninth iteration of FOCAC may well herald a longer-term recalibration of the Africa-China relationship and the idea of “development” that has been so central to it over the past two decades.“ In contrast, the assesment of Ram Singh, head of the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi, in The Diplomat is more negative: „While the summit showcased deepening ties and ambitious plans for mutual economic growth, a more intricate dynamic lies beneath, reminiscent of an octopus’ embrace – tightening, entangling, and often constricting.“ In view of the debt burden of many African countries, an article by the Africa Program of Chatham House is particularly disappointed by the fact that „China stopped short of offering broad-based debt relief at FOCAC, which many African states hoped for to allay rising concerns over debt sustainability“.
NATO on a risky course
Uwe Hoering, September 2024
Several military manoeuvres in the Asia Pacific region like Pacific Skies were a demonstration of the growing military cooperation between European NATO members, the US, and their allies in East Asia. Closer cooperation between the transatlantic alliance and partners in the Pacific region is seen by its proponents as a contribution to greater security through deterrence and mutual reinforcement, not only against China but also against North Korea and Russia. However, all the fanfare about NATO’s “Asia-Pacificisation” or Beijing’s insinuation of an „Asian NATO“ should not be taken too seriously, at least not for the time being. More important is the rearmament of NATO, because this would do much more to relieve the burden on the US, which could withdraw to some extent from its involvement in Europe and concentrate on the Pacific stage —a benefit that is worth more than a few Tornados and frigates in the Pacific. The latest turn in the escalation spiral is to define China as a military threat to Europe’s security because of its on-going alignment with Russia. Thus, the two very different conflicts in Europe and Asia are increasingly being linked under the all-encompassing umbrella of “national security”, with the impression, that the Stand-up between the US and China is reaching Europe’s doorstep. More (https://www.9dashline.com/article/nato-on-a-risky-course)
Update NATO: 15. September 2024
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius courageously “defied China’s wrath” by sending two German navy warships through the strait between Taiwan and mainland China. At the same time, this was another sign of the eagerness of NATO countries to engage in increasing confrontation and provocation alongside the USA. This is legitimized with the ‘freedom of navigation’ in international waters, which China naturally sees differently in the context of the One-China policy, according to which Taiwan belongs to China. At the same time, there are new pressure from the USA, as usual voiced as a threat by presidential candidate Trump, among others, to increase the defense spending of European NATO members to three percent of the gross national product. And it is questionable whether rumors that the current President Biden is allegedly preparing to expand the USA’s nuclear deterrence to include China are a contribution to easing tensions.
Just as the USA and its allies can demonstrate an impression of unity and military strength, so can China and Russia. As the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported, they are also planning joint military maneuvers with naval and air forces in order to “deepen the level of strategic coordination between the armed forces and improve their ability to jointly respond to security threats” in East Asia. Daniel Rakov, a military expert, even envisages a Russian ‘pivot to Asia’, including strengthening the Russian navy in the Pacific region. In the light of the smouldering territorial conflict between Russia and Japan over some of the Kuril Islands, this does not exactly look like an easing of tensions either.
See also the AEPF-Webinar: ‚Global NATO: Implications and Resistance’, July 17, 2024
Blogroll Update
This ‘Blogroll’ provides Links to Blogs, Websites, Newsletters, and other regular sources of information.
People’s Map of Global China
The People’s Map of Global China is bringing its information up to date. This includes the country profile of Argentina, for which China is the main export market for agricultural products and one of its main investors and lenders. This updated version covers the latest developments in the strained bilateral relations since Javier Milei assumed the presidency in December 2023. The Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway (HRS) is considered an icon of the Belt and Road Initiative, but its implementation was plagued by numerous problems. An updated version discusses the latest developments. And: In December 2023, Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro held a referendum on whether to claim sovereignty over nearly two-thirds of neighbouring Guyana’s current territory. Guyana today has evolved into China’s largest trading partner in the Caribbean. Thus, this conflict with China’s important oil supplier Venezuela puts Beijing into an awkward position.
9Dashline
Why a geopolitical advisory group with a focus on the Indo-Pacific region calls itself 9Dashline, the label for China’s disputed claim to large parts of the waters in Southeast Asia, is not entirely clear. „Our expertise, however, extends beyond these boundaries, encompassing Europe’s complex and dynamic relationship with the Indo-Pacific. In addition to our consultancy services, we operate a leading digital platform that serves as a hub for expert analysis on the Indo-Pacific’s pivotal issues and shifting geopolitical landscape.“ The commitment to “liberal international values” signals a certain proximity to Western ideas of international order.