ASEAN – China, Geopolitics, and the Global South

The next Fuse in the South China Sea

The situation in the South China Sea is serious, but not hopeless. Serious because the skirmishes between China and the Philippines are tinkering with a new fuse for an explosive device. But not hopeless, because nobody here can really have any interest in a military conflict. It would only become really serious if the governments allowed themselves to be drawn into another regional war as a spin-off of the broader conflict between China and the USA.

Newsletter 28/February 2024

Content: New Scramble for Africa +++ Belt&Road entwächst den Kinderschuhen +++ Asymmetrische Militarisierung +++ Limited Autonomy of Chinese NGOs abroad +++ Ups and Downs: Zivilgesellschaft in Afrika und Lateinamerika verstärkt den Druck +++ Readings: Globalising the Chinese working class struggles +++ Dramatische Veränderungen bei Belt&Road +++ Update Blogroll: Chinese in Africa / Africans in China +++ China in Africa +++ Quote: Competition and Conflict

Russia-Ukraine: Can China do mediation?

Global geopolitics, especially the conflict between China and the USA, plays a central role in the future of the war against Ukraine: For many observers, Beijing could play a key role in a negotiated solution. The attempt to square the circle of distancing itself from Putin’s war, but not letting Russia go under could be helpful. However, a further intensification of the confrontation with the USA in Asia would stand in the way here.

Triple Catch-22 with Myanmar

One year after the coup in Myanmar, the brutality of the military regime is growing, but so is armed resistance. And civilian protests are also still going on. For Beijing, the situation is becoming increasingly uncomfortable: comments and assessments on the anniversary show that the Gordian knot has, if anything, become even more tangled.

Beijing reports boom in foreign trade

China’s authorities report soaring foreign trade figures, despite of the on-going Corona pandemic. A further shift towards the BRI countries is emerging, a trend that plays into the narrative of the ‘Dual Circulation Strategy’ announced this summer. This “new development model” intends, on the one hand, to further enhance the internal economy, while ‘external circulation’ refers to further integration into the global economy through foreign trade and investments.

Indo-Pacific: Europe’s geopolitical ghost ride

It may sound like a matter of routine: The German frigate ‘Bayern’ is about to set sail and spend several months cruising in the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific. The Defense Ministry merely wants to see this just as a “sign” to fly the flag where Germany’s “values and interests are affected”. However, behind this there is a fundamental paradigm shift.

Myanmar: Beijing in a fix

After the ouster of the elected government in Myanmar on February 1 of this year, the Peking government finds itself sitting on the fence: Between the army, the Civil Disobedience Movement CDM, Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD and her elected government, and the international opinion. This is why for some observers it is “not happy with the coup”.

Review: In the Dragon’s Shadow

Hardly anyone outside Asia and academic circles is really looking at Southeast Asia – except just now, when the world’s largest free trade zone was agreed with RCEP. But this is a passing interest that is also mainly focused on the question: What does this mean for China, what games is Beijing playing? And in Europe it raises the anxious expectations: What does this mean for our economy, our companies, our exports?