NATO on a risky course

Several military manoeuvres in the Asia Pacific region like Pacific Skies were a demonstration of the growing military cooperation between European NATO members, the US, and their allies in East Asia. Closer cooperation between the transatlantic alliance and partners in the Pacific region is seen by its proponents as a contribution to greater security through deterrence and mutual reinforcement, not only against China but also against North Korea and Russia. However, all the fanfare about NATO’s “Asia-Pacificisation” or Beijing’s insinuation of an „Asian NATO“ should not be taken too seriously, at least not for the time being.

The next Fuse in the South China Sea

The situation in the South China Sea is serious, but not hopeless. Serious because the skirmishes between China and the Philippines are tinkering with a new fuse for an explosive device. But not hopeless, because nobody here can really have any interest in a military conflict. It would only become really serious if the governments allowed themselves to be drawn into another regional war as a spin-off of the broader conflict between China and the USA.

New Scramble for Africa

At the start of the new year, the foreign ministers of China and the USA went on a tour of Africa in quick succession. US government circles described it as a coincidence, although it is clear that the respective Chinese foreign minister is making his first foreign trip abroad every year for three decades, in line with the motto of ‘Dinner for One’. The travel activity highlights the fact that the new ‘Scramble for Africa’ is picking up speed.

War about critical minerals?

For some commentators, the Russian attack on Ukraine is the “first lithium war”. After all, a side effect of the Russian invasion could be to frustrate Europe’s plans for a secure supply of strategic, critical raw materials, which Ukraine has in abundance. Such considerations show the potentially explosive power of competition for critical raw materials for ‘green capitalism’.

The Ghost of the Global South

The multi-layered conflict between China and the USA and their relationship with Russia and Europe determine the current geopolitical discussions and antagonisms. Especially in the transatlantic discourse, the crucial role of the ‘Global South’ in this hegemonic realignment is often overlooked. However, the South’s role will determine whether the conflict will escalate into a new bipolar bloc confrontation or whether the adversaries will incorporate their hegemonic ambitions into a new, more equitable multipolar world order.

USA-China: Striving for friends

Applying the principle ‘winner takes all’ to the competition between China and the USA would probably mean, according to widespread view, that the one of them takes over world hegemony, either ‘authoritarian’ or ‘free’. However, the situation is far from that point, and the battle between the two rivals is continuing to rage unabated.

Newsletter 14/July-August 2022

Contents: Blog Posts: Taiwan – Der Druck im Kessel steigt  // News: Is Beijing betting on the wrong horse in Myanmar? / Due to the debt crisis Beijing is becoming a multilateralist / Weitere Rückenstärkung für Taipeh durch USA und Europa / Beijing verliert in Osteuropa an Boden // Reviews: Western ‘Othering’ of China / Global Views on China and US-China relations

B3W: New Highway to Heaven

The label for the multilateral copy of China’s New Silk Roads recently announced at the G7 summit by U.S. President Biden is gruesome: Build Back Better World, or B3W. As a “values-driven, high-standard, and transparent infrastructure partnership” it is to compete with China’s infrastructure activities. So far, however, B3W is merely an anaemic PR product.